Imagine a really cold winter. Everyone rushes out and buys a new overcoat because the old one is getting threadbare and the cold weather provides a good excuse for buying a new coat. So what happens the following winter? Few people buy a new overcoat each year. So the following winter sales slump and there is a 'recession' in the overcoat business.
Any sort of 'bunched' purchases will be followed by diminished sales.
Coming up to the year 2000 there was a reluctance of businesses and people to buy computers (etc) because of the supposed Y2K problem. After the turn of the century this delayed demand came through as purchases in a bunched fashion. This would then be followed by the slowing of purchases in the IT wourld - on a bunching basis.
There are many who, sensibly, regard IT sales as a very good indicator of business confidence, investment and growth. This is usually the case.
So when the performance of IT companies faltered, on a bunching basis, everyone predicted the long awaited recession. So they wrote and talked themselves into a recession. That is the recession we are seeing today in the U.S.A. Once the spiral of gloom starts then journalists and analysts love to have something to write about and prophecy over - so they create the events they are supposed merely to observe.
Edward de Bono nmt
4th November 2001
Barcelona
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